Think Tank Calls for Doubling Machine Games Duty on High-Street Casinos and Adult Gaming Centres

The Social Market Foundation released findings this week showing 43% of the public backs a plan to raise taxes on adult gaming centres and casinos through an increase in machine games duty. The proposal would double the current 20% rate to 40% on Category B £2 slot machines found in physical venues across Great Britain. Current revenues from these machines stand at £600m annually, and the suggested change could add between £275m and £458m each year according to modelling in the report.

Analysts note that high-street locations avoided the remote gaming duty adjustment scheduled for April 2026, which lifted online rates to 40%. The SMF document highlights this disparity and positions the new levy as a way to create more balanced treatment between land-based operators and digital platforms. Data from the think tank’s polling indicates steady public backing for targeting physical gambling sites that escaped earlier fiscal adjustments.

Details of the Tax Adjustment Proposal

The modelling breaks down expected yields under different scenarios, with the lower end of £275m reflecting conservative assumptions about player behaviour and the higher £458m figure incorporating broader machine utilisation rates. Experts who reviewed the numbers point out that Category B machines remain the dominant revenue source inside adult gaming centres and many high-street casinos. Doubling the duty would apply only to these physical locations, leaving remote operations under the separate regime already set for the 2026 change.

Figures in the report also show that existing duty collections from land-based machines have remained relatively flat despite overall sector growth in remote channels. Observers note teh proposal arrives at a moment when local authorities continue to review licensing applications for new adult gaming centres in several regions.

Polling Data and Public Response

The survey conducted for the SMF captured responses from a representative sample and found 43% support for the tax rise, with the remainder either opposed or undecided. Researchers present the result alongside questions about perceptions of fairness between online and offline gambling taxation. Those who favour the increase often cite the visibility of high-street venues as a factor in their answers, while the report itself stops short of interpreting motivations.

Connection to Policy Developments in 2026

Commentators have linked the timing of the SMF release to potential future moves by Andy Burnham, who has previously discussed land-based gambling regulation in his role as Mayor of Greater Manchester. The Guardian article covering the report notes that Burnham’s office has not issued an official response, yet the proposal surfaces just as July 2026 local authority budgets begin to take shape. Several councils have already indicated they will examine revenue forecasts that incorporate higher machine games duty when setting next-year allocations.

Industry representatives have begun reviewing the modelling assumptions, particularly around price sensitivity and possible shifts in player spend. The report emphasises that its projections assume no immediate change in machine numbers or operating hours, although some operators may adjust future investment plans if the duty increase moves forward.

Revenue Context and Sector Comparisons

Current machine games duty at 20% generates the £600m baseline cited in the SMF analysis. Adding the projected £275m to £458m would represent a substantial uplift relative to that starting point. Comparisons within the document place these amounts against total gambling yield figures published by HM Revenue and Customs for the most recent full financial year. The analysis remains focused on Category B machines and does not extend estimates to other gaming categories.

Stakeholders tracking the issue note that any legislative step would require primary or secondary legislation, a process that typically follows consultation periods. The SMF report stops at presenting the polling and revenue scenarios, leaving the question of implementation to policymakers.

Conclusion

The Social Market Foundation’s release supplies fresh data on public attitudes toward machine games duty and outlines the scale of additional revenue that could flow from a 40% rate applied to physical venues. As July 2026 approaches, local and national figures will continue to weigh these numbers against existing fiscal plans and licensing frameworks. The report’s release adds one more element to ongoing discussions about how taxation applies across different segments of the gambling market.